Introduction

Not another report on e-commerce – that is the likely response of many to this report from the Retail and Consumer Services Foresight Panel. But I believe we have a clear and unique contribution to make to the current debate about the future of our high street and e-retailers; we highlight new opportunities for information and communications technology industries and the challenges that fall to policy makers if we are to ensure the benefits of e-commerce in the UK are available to a wide range of consumers.

This report provides no scare stories of a deserted high street. Rather its messages are positive:

— personal e-commerce will grow in the UK;

— it will develop in a unique pattern, and not follow the US computer-based approach;

— new platforms are already coming on stream that can provide
a great fillip to the e-commerce market;

— the successful implementation of current government initiatives
could widen e-commerce across all social groups.

These and other potential developments are drawn out in four possible scenarios that we have developed, depicting explosive, dynamic, active or sluggish growth. These scenarios are not predictions of the future but pictures of possible futures based on a wide range of available forecasts on the growth of e-commerce.

This is a consultative document and we look forward to hearing from companies and individuals about their response to the scenarios in the report and their views as to whether they are ready to benefit from the new market opportunities that e-commerce represents to individual retailers large and small, to the newer e-tailers and to consumers throughout the UK.

Chris Townsend
Chair of the Retail e-commerce Task Force of the Retail and Consumer Services Foresight Panel