Explosive
By 2005, the UK has become a true information society with the majority of the population participating in digital channels to some degree. E-commerce has now become a significant part of retailing, accounting for an ever increasing share of consumer expenditure.

The Government’s drive to make the UK the best centre in the world for e-commerce pays off, with social exclusion substantially reduced through a range of initiatives. With equal access to information and services via widely-distributed and low-cost platforms, inequalities of opportunity, education or skills are eroded.

DTV has become a mass medium more rapidly than expected, bringing about an early end to analogue transmissions, with just five per cent of the population unable or unwilling to go digital. New types of leisure and viewing are rapidly developed as the UK’s creative community takes advantage of the potential of the technology.

E-commerce becomes an important economic engine in its own right, as new products and services are developed. The key to the breakthrough of this approach is the high percentage of the population purchasing through digital technologies. With few barriers to acquiring, understanding and using the appropriate technology, all social groups become involved and are in turn affected by the opportunities.

Dynamic
Consumer e-commerce experiences high growth during the next five years, with a significant proportion of retail expenditure transferring into the new technologies. Most existing retailers develop services specifically for the new digital environment, while some innovative new offers are also introduced.

Government policies encourage substantial uptake of e-commerce by large businesses as well as many medium-sized organisations, although small enterprises are unable to develop propositions for every platform. Broad adoption of digital technologies is encouraged through public access points and training programmes.

Involvement with e-commerce is not universal, however, with some limited social exclusion still a feature of the digital environment. With the free flow of information and wider access to services, many social distinctions are eroded. But some social groups do remain outside the trend, rejecting DTV and PC-based e-commerce as not being relevant to their lifestyle.

The impact of DTV on e-commerce is also mixed, with many households subscribing to new programme channels, but slower in the use of iDTV services.

Retailers with no e-commerce presence struggle to maintain market share. Many find themselves in locations where there is a steady withdrawal from physical world retailing by information and service-based organisations, such as banks and travel agents.

The growth of consumer e-commerce up to 2005 is high, but it is centred mostly on affluent consumers. Time-pressured people from young and middle-aged groups, principally ABC1s, adopt technologies extensively because of the convenience and improved service they offer compared to conventional retailing.

There is a high level of social exclusion from digital technology, however, with an amplification of differences between the technology haves and have-nots. Levels of uptake of DTV are not as high as predicted, with the major barriers being the cost of new, interactive DTV sets, the additional digital licence fee, the cost of subscription services, and especially the cost of local phone calls.

There is also social resistance in principle, with many identifying e-commerce and iDTV with an unacceptable intrusion into their lives. There is objection to the enforced transition from analogue TV.

Only those SMEs which sell to affluent or well-educated consumers adopt e-commerce. The costs of retailing through multiple platforms are prohibitive, with only the largest companies able to maintain a presence in every DTV network and via the Internet. Discounters also feature, but specialising in niche products, rather than everyday purchases.

Sluggish
Growth in e-commerce transactions is relatively low, with a range of obstacles to its development in the UK, despite overall growth in consumer spending. Government policy is knocked off-course by external economic factors. Consumers do not perceive e-commerce as a benefit.

The potential impact on the high street leads to efforts to boycott e-commerce. This deters many companies from becoming service providers through the new platforms to avoid alienating their customers. Real or perceived misuse of e-commerce also creates a backlash. DTV creates social problems as it threatens the pattern of family viewing and increases the risk of children running up large phone bills.

Small businesses are unable to afford to adopt e-commerce, or lack the technology and skills to do so. One of the major obstacles to growth is reliable and affordable logistics for delivery to the home, especially outside office hours. Retailing is relatively unaffected by the growth of e-commerce.